IMF loan conditions unmet as revenue target falls short interest payments surge

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has extended credit support facilities with loan conditions, given the current economic situation. However, it's anticipated that the forthcoming budget will be highly contractionary. Efforts will be made to reduce the budget deficit and curtail debt, particularly from savings bonds.

Sources within the Ministry of Finance reveal that the government will unveil the budget in the National Parliament on Thursday, projecting expenditures of Tk 7,97,000 crores. This marks a mere 4.62 percent increase from the current budget outlay. Historically, budgets have seen growth ranging from 12 to 15 percent year-on-year.

The government has aimed for a revenue target of 5,41,000 crores in the new financial year. Of this, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is tasked with collecting Tk 4,80,000 crore, a Tk 50,000 crore uptick from the current fiscal year. The IMF's condition was to increase revenue by 0.05 percent of GDP, but the revenue board has only managed to raise next fiscal year's revenue outlay by 50,000 crores.

Conversely, interest payments for domestic and foreign loans are set to soar in the next financial year, totaling Tk 1,13,500 crores, an 8.43 percent increase from the current fiscal year, amounting to an additional Tk 8,830 crores. This brings the total outlay to Tk 1,04,670 crores for the current financial year.

To offset the deficit, the government plans to borrow 3.5 lakh crores from domestic and foreign sources in the next budget. However, the amount earmarked for repayment of old investments in savings bonds indicates a decrease, estimated at Tk 15,400 crore compared to Tk 18,000 crore this year.

Former Finance Secretary and Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) Mohammad Muslim Chowdhury expressed that while IMF conditions may be beneficial for the economy overall, implementing all reform initiatives simultaneously during an economic crisis could be counterproductive. He emphasized the potential strain on the populace if duties are increased amidst high inflation. Chowdhury stressed the necessity of controlling the burgeoning interest payments on the country's debt in the future.